An Italian exit from the single currency would trigger the total collapse of the eurozone within a very short period.
It would probably lead to the most violent economic shock in history, dwarfing the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy in 2008 and the 1929 Wall Street crash. But my sense is that those who would advocate an Italian departure might even relish bringing down the whole house.
To prevent such a calamity, EU leaders should seriously consider doing what they have failed to do since 2008: resolve the union’s multiple crises rather than muddle through. And that will have to involve a plan for the political union of the eurozone countries.
Britain is not the cause for any of this. The eurozone and its appallingly weak leaders are to blame. But Brexit may well be the trigger.
É já em Outubro.